Political Audience Intelligence
From electoral research to addressable, measurable execution.
Semcasting is the deterministic identity and measurement layer that connects electoral strategy, candidate intelligence, and media planning into audiences you can activate everywhere — and prove you reached. This site walks through a real working example: the 2026 Massachusetts 6th Congressional District Democratic primary.
The 2026 Massachusetts 6th Congressional District race
Every theme below carries an evidence grade, exactly as delivered to campaign stakeholders. Seth Moulton (D) is vacating this seat to run for U.S. Senate. The Sept. 1, 2026 Democratic primary is the operative contest — no meaningful Republican polling was identified for this D+11 seat, so this build profiles the three consistent frontrunners across all available Democratic primary polling. A fourth candidate, Jamie Belsito, polls a clear fourth and is not profiled here.
U.S. House, MA-6 — Democratic Primary
District · FEC · Cook PVI D+11Polling is genuinely mixed and highly sponsor-dependent: Koh's own internal poll shows him leading 34%-15%-14%; independent and rival-commissioned polls (Schoen Cooperman, StratPolitics) consistently show Tram Nguyen leading, with Koh and Beccia contesting second. Koh and Beccia hold a large financial advantage (~$3.6M and ~$2.1-2.3M cash on hand respectively) over Nguyen's ~$330K.
Tram Nguyen
D · Polling Leader (most surveys)Dan Koh
D · Fundraising Leader (~$3.6M)John Beccia
D · Self-Funded (~$3M loaned)Who is actually funding this race
Figures below are drawn from FEC filings as tracked by the Boston Globe and North Shore/Merrimack Valley local press. This primary shows one of the starkest fundraising splits in this entire project.
Tram Nguyen
Polling LeaderDan Koh
Fundraising LeaderJohn Beccia
Self-FundedFrom themes to modeled reach
Every theme rolls up to a formula-linked reach model across news, sports, streaming, audio, social, and influencer inventory. These are directional planning estimates — the gap between this and delivered reach is exactly what Semcasting's identity layer closes.
Total modeled reach vs. modeled progressive-leaning reach
The single clearest theme, per candidate
Nguyen's #1 theme
Committee stipend controversyKoh's #1 theme
Establishment-insider profileBeccia's #1 theme
Self-funding ratioMA-6 primary — reach by theme
Search demand & intent tier — illustrative keyword pool
Platform audience intelligence
| Platform | Category | Monthly reach | Progressive % | Progressive reach |
|---|
Domain audience intelligence
| Domain | Category | Monthly reach | Progressive % | Progressive reach |
|---|
Texting reach potential
Modeled addressable universe for SMS/peer-to-peer texting programs, applying an assumed 78% cell-phone opt-in coverage rate against MA-6's registered-voter base. This is a Democratic-primary-only universe estimate — only voters who can pull a Democratic ballot on Sept. 1 are relevant to this specific program.
Addressable text universe by primary-relevance segment
| Segment | Share (est.) | Registered voters (est.) | Addressable at 78% opt-in |
|---|---|---|---|
| High-propensity Dem primary voters | 22% | 110,000 | 86,000 |
| Moderate-propensity Dem-leaning voters | 35% | 175,000 | 137,000 |
| Low-propensity/unenrolled, Dem-eligible | 43% | 215,000 | 168,000 |
Who's shaping the conversation
Organized into three tiers: social influencers (organic reach, unpaid), political pundits (professional commentators and institutional voices), and paid influencers (compensated content creators, with disclosure status noted).
Tram Nguyen (D)
Pundit/institutionalDan Koh (D)
Pundit/institutionalJohn Beccia (D)
Pundit/institutionalThe closed-loop operating model
The workbooks sum potential platform reach but don't deduplicate people across channels. Semcasting's deterministic identity infrastructure answers the question spreadsheets can't: how many unique voters and households were actually reached, how often, in what sequence, and with what result.
Build auditable universes
Voter and household universes the campaign can defend and reuse across every channel.
Deliver consistent audiences
The same audience across approved media and owned channels — reduce channel-by-channel drift.
Connect exposure to people
See beyond platform-level aggregate reporting to actual person- and household-level outcomes.
Compare what worked
Audience × message × media × frequency — identify causal hypotheses, not just totals.
Refresh & redeploy
Move budget and creative while there's still time left to affect the race.
Which voters matter. Which messages move them. Where you can reach them.
Semcasting helps a campaign answer four questions research alone can't — who's actually in play, how to reach them consistently, how to measure beyond platform silos, and how to improve mid-flight — through a five-layer planning system. Each layer moves a campaign from general political intuition toward addressable, measurable execution, and everything on this page is built on top of this stack.
Approved voter-file, turnout, geography, household, demographic, campaign CRM, and engagement signals resolved into auditable audience universes.
Onboard the same underlying audience across programmatic, CTV, social, streaming audio, direct mail, and other approved channels — no channel-by-channel drift.
Resolve exposure, website engagement, donations, volunteer activity, petition activity, and other approved outcomes at the person or household level.
Ongoing recommendations across audience, channel, publisher, creative, placement, geography, sequence, and frequency — while there's still time to act.
Built to be defensible, not just fast
Political audience work runs on campaign counsel, platform-policy review, and careful data governance — configured to the specific race, sponsor, channel, geography, and permitted purpose.
Regulatory
FEC requirements apply throughout, since this is a federal U.S. House race. This build focuses on the Sept. 1, 2026 Democratic primary; no meaningful Republican general-election competitiveness was identified for this D+11 seat as of this writing — revisit closer to November.
Platform policy
Verified political-ad accounts; current Google, Meta, TikTok, CTV, DSP, publisher and influencer policies. FTC material-connection disclosure applies to paid influencer activity in addition to political-ad rules.
Security foundation
Semcasting maintains SOC 2 Type II certification and supports CCPA, DAA, HITRUST, and GDPR-aligned privacy programs, with consumer opt-out built in.
| Evidence level | Recommended use |
|---|---|
| High-confidence / independently documented | Eligible for message testing after legal and factual review. |
| Medium / partly inferred | Use as a research or testing hypothesis; do not present as measured fact. |
| Low / research gap | Do not use in paid creative without additional primary-source investigation. |
| Sensitive issue | Separate policy position from character/consistency framing; test with the specific target electorate. |
| Modeled reach | Use for relative prioritization only, until replaced by live inventory and deduplicated measurement. |
How an engagement actually starts
See your own race modeled & measured like this.
A practical first engagement uses one governor or Senate audience file, one to three high-confidence audience hypotheses, and a limited set of media channels — and quantifies incremental addressability, unique reach, cross-channel overlap, and optimization quality.
*Available to verified Agencies of Record for a candidate, or any currently active statewide or Congressional campaign; Semcasting will verify status. Campaign Intel reports may also be available for PACs and campaign committees for review and research.