HVAC Replacement Prospects
Owners of homes old enough that the original HVAC system is likely near end of life (12 to 20+ years), timed to seasonal heat and cold.
Across 139.5M U.S. households, 37.8M qualify for HVAC replacement prospects (27.1%), and 8.6M are in Tier 1, the closest fit. Built for service brands.
Households of 139.5M scored
- Qualifying households
- 37,835,641
- Tier 1 (closest fit)
- 8,559,655
- Tier 2
- 22,949,171
- Tier 3
- 6,326,815
- Of which modeled homeowners
- 692,729
- Recent visits to matching sites
- 21,872
- Matching CTV viewing
- 688,715
Tiers rank qualifying households by score. Site visits and CTV viewing come from partner data covering about 2.8% of U.S. households, so they are an in-market layer on top of the tiers rather than a separate audience. Modeled homeowners come from Semcasting's ownership-likelihood model, where ownership is not recorded.
Who qualifies
- Qualifying rules
- Owner, single-family, home age 12+ yrs and owned 8+ yrs (original or aging system), or home age 15-25 yrs regardless of tenure; value $125K+
- Strongest fit
- home age 15-25 yrs or fuel-oil or electric heat or no central cooling
- Life events
- Long tenure; new movers into 15+ yr homes (inherited aging system); seniors (comfort/safety)
- Timing
- In-market + seasonal trigger
What drives the score share of the 0 to 100 score
For most households the score rests on property, life-event, regional and contractor-density fit. Browsing and CTV signals add to it where they exist.
When and where flight planning
- Flight timing
- Primary: 3+ days above 90F (cooling) or below 20F (heating) in DMA; shoulder-season tune-up flights Mar-Apr & Sep-Oct
- Regional focus
- Heat + cold extremes (40 states)
Top states by qualifying-share index
- Connecticut
- Maryland
- Pennsylvania
- Delaware
- New Hampshire
- Arizona
Where to reach them search themes, content and CTV
The language and content these households engage with, for search, contextual and CTV targeting. Example programming shows typical adjacency for each genre.
- thermostat
- heat pump
- central air
- ac repair
- ac not cooling
- ac installation
- hvac cost
- seer rating
- furnace repair
- hvac replacement
- CTV genres
- Home & Garden, Weather, News (Content Type)
- Example programming
- This Old House (Richard Trethewey HVAC segments), Ask This Old House, Weather Channel / local news weather blocks during heat & cold events, HGTV renovation
- Content categories
- Home Improvement, Home Appliances, Gas and Electric, Smart Home
Contractors and trade audience Census ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023
| NAICS | U.S. establishments |
|---|---|
| Plumbing, Heating & A/C Contractors238220 | 121,398 |
| Commercial/Industrial Equipment Repair (crossover)811310 | 13,985 |
- Contractor establishments in qualifying ZIPs
- 0
- Per 1,000 qualifying households
- 3.5
Trade audience: HVAC dealers and installers, utility rebate programs, HVAC distributors and field-service software providers.
Common questions
How many households fit the HVAC replacement prospects audience?
37.8M U.S. households qualify (27.1% of 139.5M scored), and 8.6M are in Tier 1, the closest fit. 693K of the qualifying households are modeled homeowners rather than recorded ones. 21,872 also show recent visits to matching home services sites.
Who uses the HVAC replacement prospects audience?
It is built for home services franchises, contractor networks and the agencies that buy for them. Typical trade audience: hVAC dealers and installers, utility rebate programs, HVAC distributors and field-service software providers.
How is the HVAC replacement prospects audience built?
Households qualify on property and ownership rules (Owner, single-family, home age 12+ yrs and owned 8+ yrs (original or aging system), or home age 15-25 yrs regardless of tenure; value $125K+). Each is then scored 0 to 100 on contextual browsing & CTV 30%, property fit 30%, life events 10%, regional & seasonal 20%, contractor density 10%. It is not built from deed, permit or job records.
Evidence base data behind HVAC replacement prospects
- Semcasting dataSemcasting household file
- Semcasting dataSemcasting home improvement data
- Semcasting modelSemcasting ownership-likelihood model
- Semcasting dataSemcasting domain inventory
- Partner dataHome services site visits (SSP partner data)
- Industry standardIAB Tech Lab Content Taxonomy 2.2
- Semcasting dataSemcasting CTV Genre Mapping
- Federal statisticsCensus ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023
- ClassificationNorth American Industry Classification System
- Semcasting dataSemcasting contractor business sample
- Semcasting dataSemcasting contractor data
- Planned triggerNOAA National Weather Service alerts
How the audience is built
Every U.S. household in the Semcasting file is checked against the property and ownership rules above, then scored 0 to 100 on the weighted signals shown. Where ownership is not recorded, Semcasting's ownership-likelihood model adds households with a high probability of owning.
How it will be confirmed
Compare leads, booked jobs or sales by tier at equal spend, holding out a random 10% of each tier. Weights are refit against those results as campaign data comes in.
What it is not
Not a deed, permit, pool or job record for any household. Regional and seasonal rules are set by state today; storm and freeze event triggers are planned as weather feeds are joined.