Health Insurance Audience Briefs  ·  Open Enrollment shoppers by channel, scored for fit and measured weekly  ·  audience@semcasting.com

Under 65 · ages 26-64

ACA Marketplace Audiences

Open EnrollmentNov 1 to Dec 15, 2026

. 54M people in the United States fit the ACA Marketplace profile at the Qualified tier, with 3.64× more high-fit people than the U.S. population baseline. At $1.50 to $3.00 CPM, these audiences are priced at approximately 50% or less of the market rate, with results reported every week.

Enrollment timing. Shorter for 2027 coverage. HealthCare.gov states close December 15, no state exchange may run past December 31, and every plan selected starts January 1, 2027. The January 15 backstop is gone.

~137MTotal addressable audience
46MHigh-Fit people
54MQualified reach
72.0Average index score
3.64×High-Fit lift index

Qualified audience

Every person is scored 0 to 100 for fit to this channel. You buy only the tiers that qualify.

$1.50 to $3.00 CPM

Priced at approximately 50% or less of the market rate for health insurance audiences.

Weekly measurement

Qualified reach, lift against the national panel, and reach by state, reported every week of the enrollment window.

Who this audience is

Working-age adults who do not get coverage through an employer and buy a plan themselves on HealthCare.gov or a state exchange. Freelancers, gig and contract workers, early retirees under 65, part-time employees, and anyone between jobs. Cost is the deciding factor for most of them, and a large share qualify for a subsidy that lowers the monthly premium.

Why they are in market

Open Enrollment is a hard deadline. Miss it and you wait a year. That makes this the most time-sensitive audience of the five, and the one most actively searching for plan comparisons and price information in the weeks before the cutoff. For 2027 coverage the window is about six weeks in HealthCare.gov states, so flights need to start earlier and peak sooner.

How big this audience is of 252M scored people

TierScoreShareU.S. reach
High-Fit85+18.5%46,480,042
Qualified75+21.3%53,699,767
Extended Reach65+21.4%53,946,896
Digitally active, qualified7.5%18,790,316

Qualified is the default buy. Digitally active is the qualified audience with average or higher digital engagement: 35% of it. Mean channel score across the panel: 85.3/100. Each person counts toward one channel only.

Age index vs. U.S. population

Affluence index vs. U.S. population

Budget
189
Middle
38
Affluent
0

100 = same share as the U.S. population. Teal is over-represented (130+), orange is under-represented (70 or below). The vertical line marks 100.

Reading the audience profile

About one in five people clear the tightest High-Fit bar, and just over one in five clear Qualified. Age 23 to 69 is where the audience lives, peaking sharply at 50 to 59. Everything 70 and up drops out because those people are on Medicare. Budget affluence dominates and Affluent drops to effectively zero: this is an almost purely subsidy-driven, lower-income market.

Top states qualified audience

  1. Florida 13M
  2. South Carolina 2.2M
  3. Oklahoma 1.3M
  4. Mississippi 1.2M
  5. South Dakota 477K
  6. Montana 392K

Actual 2025 CMS Marketplace enrollment is concentrated in Texas (4.73M), Florida (4.60M), California (1.80M), Georgia (1.30M) and North Carolina (1.00M). Weight geographic budget toward actual enrollment; use the modeled profile for creative and audience decisions.

Where to reach them search and content themes

The language people use when they look for coverage information, for contextual and PMP targeting.

  • affordable health insurance marketplace
  • open enrollment deadline 2026
  • premium tax credit eligibility
  • health insurance without a job
  • marketplace plans under $50 a month
  • how to sign up for healthcare.gov
  • silver vs bronze health plan
  • self-employed health insurance options
Worth knowing. Three different ACA numbers get quoted and they are not interchangeable. About 44M is everyone covered by any ACA initiative today. 21.3M is actual 2025 Marketplace plan enrollment. 53.7M is the measured Qualified audience: people who fit the profile and for whom ACA Marketplace is their single best-fitting channel, not people already enrolled.

Common questions

Evidence base primary sources for ACA Marketplace

  • Federal surveyU.S. Census Bureau, ACS brief ACSBR-024, Health Insurance Coverage by State: 2023 and 2024
  • Public health researchSHADAC State Health Compare, Health Insurance Coverage Type by Total, 2024
  • Federal enrollment dataCMS 2026 Open Enrollment Period ZIP-level Public Use File
  • Federal enrollment dataCMS 2025 Marketplace Open Enrollment Period state enrollment reports
  • Direct countSemcasting national person scoring, 251,722,617 records

How the audience is built

Each of 251.7M U.S. adults is scored 0 to 100 for fit to ACA Marketplace: a 40-point base, up to 25 points for age fit, up to 20 for household affluence fit, and up to 15 for state coverage context, plus up to 10 for ZIP-level Marketplace enrollment in HealthCare.gov states. Geography: Qualified means a score of 75 or higher with ACA Marketplace as the person's best-fit channel. High-Fit means 85 or higher.

How quality is confirmed

Reach figures are direct counts from the full national scoring, not extrapolations from a sample, and each person counts toward one channel only. During a campaign, the qualified share of households reached is measured every week against the national panel at the same score cutoffs.

What it is not

A marketing propensity score built from published, population-level Census, SHADAC and CMS data. It is not an insurance eligibility, subsidy or coverage determination for any person. No individual enrollment records, claims or PHI are used, and race is reported for parity checks only, never scored.